Here’s What No One Tells You About Bordeaux Futures Pricing


Now, this time of year, everyone is talking about prices before the futures are released in May and June. The question is, will the wines be more expensive or less expensive than in years past? Will they be relatively well received? This is a high-quality vintage that people are really excited about. Certainly, as enthusiastic as people were about 2015, 2016, and the trio of 2018, 2019, and 2020. So here we have 2021, 2022, 2023. We're sitting in a world with war in Ukraine. Inflation we haven't seen in decades. Indeed, at seven-plus percent. We've got all sorts of other global economic pressures. And so people are asking, what will the pricing be like? Here's something most people don't realize.

The people that set the prices are Chateau owners. The people that make the wines live in places like this; they have wineries like this with hundreds of hectares. They have other businesses and are wildly insulated from the economic pressures that the rest of the world and most consumers feel. And that's really important when you start thinking and talking about the price because they're relatively immune to the changes year after year. And they set whatever price they want for their business. And, uh, um, that's why sometimes there's this perception that the border lays or the Chateau owners are a bit out of step or out of touch with a general consumer. The fact of the matter is they can afford to sit on these wines and this inventory for many years. And I look back at 2011 Vintage, and I'm seeing still being poured in restaurants in downtown Bordeaux.

These wines were not of great vintage. It was not that well received, especially after outstanding 9 and 10. Yet, 2011s are still available in the market from the Chateau. And you have to remember, when the entrepreneurs start in May or June every year, the Chateau is only inclined to release 25% of their production. Why would they release more? Because they're offering it a discount price, and they know if they hold onto the wine longer, generally the price goes up. You have a high supply and get the cash flow for your year if you're a Chateau owner. And then you hold onto some of the inventory with the hope and anticipation that the wines and supply go down, demand goes up, especially at a high-quality vintage like 2022, and the price too. So this is a vintage where as always if you're highly selective, if you're getting good guidance, and you're following the high-quality brands that tend to succeed and improve and increase in value over time, you'll be well rewarded.

I anticipate solid and brisk sales with the 2022 releases coming forward. And if you choose wisely, you could get some great values and wines that could be great investments. So stay tuned; cheers.

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